Uncertainty in scientific exploration

A crucial way to understand the path of scientific exploration is to define it as an uncertain process.

Uncertain in the sense that the output of past activities can't be used to judge the output of future activities.

That is a clear difference between risk and uncertainty, and perhaps one of the tenets that push the idea of knowledge spill-over, in the sense of knowledge generated as part of the scientific exploration.

Acknowledging the uncertain process may be the missing link to justify changing scientific incentives can help overcome stagnation.