Since most startups fail, there's a large number of false positive observations

First published:

Last Edited:

Number of edits:

In the process of tuning a business model idea, entrepreneurs go through a series of processes, that are broadly referred to as experiments (see: experiments for idea validation). The statistics show that the majority of startups fail during their initial years, which should indicate that those experiments have a large number of false positive observations.

In order to reduce those false positives, it is possible to apply the scientific method a bit more strictly (see: literature/202201061619 Treating a business model as a scientific model). False positives may be related to biases (confirmation bias, for example), or to poorly defined objectives and metrics to measure the success of an experiment.

I have struggled with establishing thresholds for idea validation. Perhaps being overly optimistic regarding the meaning of the results is a common treat of entrepreneurs.

Tags: #entrepreneurship-principles #idea-validation


Share your thoughts on this note
Aquiles Carattino
Aquiles Carattino
This note you are reading is part of my digital garden. Follow the links to learn more, and remember that these notes evolve over time. After all, this website is not a blog.
© 2021 Aquiles Carattino
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License
Privacy Policy