Since most startups fail, there's a large number of false positive observations
In the process of tuning a business model idea, entrepreneurs go through a series of processes, that are broadly referred to as experiments (see: experiments for idea validation). The statistics show that the majority of startups fail during their initial years, which should indicate that those experiments have a large number of false positive observations.
In order to reduce those false positives, it is possible to apply the scientific method a bit more strictly (see: literature/202201061619 Treating a business model as a scientific model). False positives may be related to biases (confirmation bias, for example), or to poorly defined objectives and metrics to measure the success of an experiment.
I have struggled with establishing thresholds for idea validation. Perhaps being overly optimistic regarding the meaning of the results is a common treat of entrepreneurs.
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